***TNF IN THE SWAMP - BUFF @ NYJ***

***BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS***

An AFC East battle takes center stage tonight on TNF between two teams that have certainly surprised most people this season in the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Before the season started, both teams were speculated to be among the bottom of the barrel while in the midst of a "rebuilding year" and looking forward to acquiring a shiny new QB with a high draft pick. That hasn't been the case whatsoever as the Bills are currently sitting with an impressive 5-2 record under new Head Coach Sean McDermott. They will be looking to increase their record to 6-2 with a win on the road tonight at MetLife Stadium, which would tie them with the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots for first in the Division due to the fact that the Pats are on a bye this week. Needless to say, this team is riding a high right now and flourishing by a combination of creating turnovers on defense and running the football with RB LeSean 'Shady' McCoy. Buffalo leads the league with a +14 turnover differential. While I am more of a gut feel type of guy rather than a stat and numbers cruncher since I think stats can tend to be a bit flukey with some turnovers being luck-related, I can't deny the positive direction this team is headed in even though I am not yet a believer that they are a contender. McDermott has done a stellar job since coming to town and this team is drinking the kool-aid he's pouring so to speak. It is clear that they believe in themselves and sometimes that's all you need in order to be in position to win games. The Bills organization looks to be also going all in on McDermott this season in an effort to try and end a 17 year playoff drought by trading for Carolina's number one WR in Kelvin Benjamin. Since McDermott came from Carolina's coaching staff, Benjamin is definitely one of his guys and the reason they went after him. This gives QB Tyrod Taylor the big target at WR he has been missing. Bills fans or should I say "Bills Mafia" is loving what this team has done recently and they should. Benjamin won't be a factor tonight of course since he was just traded to the team a day ago. The Bills have plenty to hang with the Jets tonight but as we've seen, the Jets are no push-over.

The 3-5 Jets, like the Bills but to a lesser degree, have already surpassed many expectations so far this season. They were the only team to not be favored in a single game this season in the early lines that were released this year via Vegas. After dropping their first two games, the first one on the road in Buffalo, they rattled off three impressive wins in a row. They've since followed up those wins with three straight losses, all in which they had a lead late in the game and couldn't find a way to close the door. Those games were against the Pats, Dolphins, and Falcons. Impressive indeed and good for Head Coach Todd Bowles and the Jets to show that they are still competing every week, regardless of the odds stacked agains them. However, I do believe that the Jets are slowly but surely returning to form and will eventually become the team we thought they were going to be. I only see them winning one, maybe two more games at best the rest of the way and I don't think it will be tonight. In my opinion, if not for the monsoon that hit MetLife last weekend, the Falcons would've blown them out. The Bills on the other hand, routed the Raiders by creating turnovers on defense and turning them into points, increasing their home record to 4-0. That kind of win really feeds into a team's confidence and I think the Bills are hyped up enough to carry that over on the road in Prime Time tonight. NYJ's QB veteran journeyman Josh McCown has done a pretty great job thus far as the bridge QB for the Jets organization. The guy has proved many times in his career that he is a warrior and will always give his team a fighting chance in a game with how fearless he is. He does not hesitate to throw into tight windows which allows his guys to try and make a play but up against a ball hawking defense like the Bills have been, this could and will most likely be a bad thing in this matchup. Bills Safety Micah Hyde has been a tremendous addition for this offense and I believe already has five interceptions on the year. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time, picking off passes on deflected balls. That being said, I think this defense doesn't let up one bit tonight and will force McCown to beat them through the air by crowding the line and stuffing any attempt the Jets have at the run game. NYJ WR Robby Anderson has proven to be a dangerous threat with his speed. He and McCown have developed quite the chemistry so I would expect the Jets to take plenty of shots with the deep ball. Jets TE Austin Sefarian Jenkins has also been a nice addition to this offense and the Jets just might have found their TE of the future, finally. That being said I think the Jets will do enough to hang and contend in this one as I fully expect them to not hold anything back in an attempt to hold down homefield against a rival in the Prime Time spotlight. However I believe that eventually the Bills will get the one or two turnovers that will make the difference in this one.

Offensively the Bills should have plenty of success against a banged up Jets defensive unit. DT Muhammad Wilkerson hasn't been 100% all season despite giving a valiant effort each week. The Jets will be without CB Morris Claiborne but will get back slot CB Buster Skrine tonight which should also help make things difficult for the Bills passing game as Skrine can be a pest in blitzes off the edge. However I don't believe the Bills will need to try and go to the air too much and will keep things on the ground via Shady or Tyrod using his mobility to pick up first downs. The Jets lack the defensive front needed to keep Taylor contained in the pocket and I think that he will eventually wear them down with his legs, frustrating them throughout the game. Bills TE Charles Clay will be sidelined for this one which is a big hit to the passing game but again, the Bills should have enough offensive firepower with the running game to handle business here, even up against an amped up Jets team playing at home. Similar to how week 1 went between these two teams, I expect McCoy to run all over them tonight. Falcons RB Tevin Coleman reminds me of McCoy in some ways with his running style, and his shiftiness was too much for the Jets LBs to handle in the open field last week. I have to say that I do think the Jets hit two homeruns with their draft picks last season, taking back to back Safeties in Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye. Those guys bring the boom and are extremely talented. I love the fact that they came into the league together and expect them to be a huge part of this Jets defense for a long time. Despite their talent, their inexperience has been taken advantage of in the passing game at times by veteran QBs. That being said I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills catch them sleeping on a deep ball or with some plain 'ol trickery, McCoy is one of the better RBs at throwing the ball, just a thought. So keeping it simple here on the analysis, while I again don't think the Bills are world beaters yet by any means, I do think they have enough talent and momentum to get the job done tonight. The Tyrod and Shady combination can be a deadly one and they will impose their will on the Jets defense tonight. In a game I expect to be decided by a FG, it is no surprise that the line is -3 and I could see the deficit of the final score landing dead on it. That being said I much rather back the team I expect to win rather than hoping the home dog who I can't trust to not turn over the ball, keep it within 3 points against a team who is thriving on that very aspect of the game. I foresee the Bills train picking up steam with a 6-2 record after tonight, living the dream of first place in the Division, even if just a week and shared with the Super Bowl Champs. It has been a long time since they have reached the mountain top of the AFC East and I like the race between those two teams to heat up as the hype builds before they face-off for the first time in Buffalo in a few weeks. At the same time, I think the Jets will put up a great fight here, but continue to regress and start to lose motivation as the season goes on and the picture becomes clear that it is indeed a rebuilding year. The clamoring to make a QB change to see what they have in their youngsters as they head into their bye in two weeks seems all too appropriate. These rivals are quickly moving in two different directions, give me the Buffs in this one to get it done. BILLS-3